Two Factors Will Decide Walker’s Fate in Recall Election

Marquette University Law School conducted a statewide poll last week to establish how the citizens of Wisconsin feel about the Walker recall election.

Although polls repeatedly put their number at between 3 percent and 6 percent of potential voters in a Walker recall election, the Undecideds will be one of two factors deciding whether the first-term Republican governor stays on the job or is the third governor in U.S. history to be removed. The other factor deciding Walker’s future will be how well each side executes its get-out-the-vote drives.

Those two factors could determine Walker’s fate because other Wisconsin voters have their minds made up on Walker and are equally divided on him. Variations in answers to poll questions on Walker often fall within that poll’s margin of error.

The first factor that will decide Governor Walker’s fate will be the success or failure in swaying the undecided voters.

The second will be how each side executes its get-out-the-vote campaigns.

Two examples of questions from the Marquette poll are as follows:

• Question #6: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Scott Walker is handling his job as Governor? Results: Approve, 47%, dissaprove, 47%, don’t know, 4%, refused, 1 %.
• Question #12: Please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott Walker, or if you haven’t heard enough about him to have an opinion. Results: Favorable, 46%, unfavorable, 48%, haven’t heard enough, 4%, I don’t know, 1%.

Who are the undecideds? The limited poll data suggests that that they are of all ages and only slightly interested in politics.

Concerning the undecided, UW-Madison Political Science Professor Barry Burden says, “the state electorate has developed strong opinions on Governor Walker, with equal numbers supporting and opposing him. This makes the movement on the margins all the more important for winning public opinion and elections.”

“The 5% that are undecided will get a lot of attention in the upcoming recall election because of the pivotal role they play. They are generally less interested and informed than the rest of the electorate, but they are also less swayed by simple cues such as partisanship and ideology.”

“They are more likely to vote on how the incumbant is performing, particularly on the economy.”

“Voter turnout may be more of a decisive factor than the undecideded votes. It is easier for a party to mobilize its supporters than it is to persuade and turn out undecideds. We should expect a lot of concentration on the get-out-the-vote effort and negative ads to lower the enthusiasm levels of the other side.”

Seven Senate recall elections last summer attracted an average of only 62 percent of voters who participated in the last regular elections in those districts, for example. In one of those districts—the 30th, where Democratic Sen. Dave Hansen kept his seat—the vote total in the recall was only 40 percent of the number of votes cast in the 2008 regular election.

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